We all know that the avoidance change is a nerf, but there's a lot of confusion about how much of a nerf it is. It's easy to punch in the numbers and gasp, but a lot of people don't include diminishing returns because it takes more then a pencil and paper. I'm going to try to help give people an idea about how much avoidance they're going to lose with the changes. To recap, here they are:

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Q u o t e:

* Agility: The amount of agility required per percentage of dodge has been increased by 15%. This change required recalibrating the amount of dodge a player has with 0 agility by a slight amount as well, so all players will see their dodge percentage vary a small amount.
* Dodge Rating: The amount of dodge rating required per percentage of dodge has been increased by 15%. This is before diminishing returns. Combined with other changes, this makes dodge rating and parry rating equally potent before diminishing returns apply.
* Parry Rating: The amount of parry rating required per percentage of parry has been reduced by 8%. This is before diminishing returns. Combined with other changes, this makes dodge rating and parry rating equally potent before diminishing returns apply. Parry still diminishes more quickly than dodge.

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I'll be using the armor sets found in Communism's Happy Thread of Numbers, I believe they're all listed out here: http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=17900052692&sid=1

These are just examples. Individual mileage may vary.

Druid:
3.1
Dodge = 7% (base) + 10% (talents) + 35.316% (everything else)= 52.316%

3.2
Dodge = 7.4% + 10% + 32.039% = 49.439%

Net change: -2.877% avoidance

DK:
3.1
17.340 + 10 = 27.340% dodge
14.585 + 5 = 19.585% parry

3.2
15.946 + 10= 25.946% dodge
15.224 + 5 = 20.224% parry

Net change: -1.394% dodge, +0.639% parry = -0.755% avoidance


Warrior:
3.1
18.253 + 5 +5 = 28.253% dodge
11.443 + 5 +5 = 21.443% parry

3.2
16.852 + 5 +5 =26.852% dodge
11.878 + 5 + 5 = 21.878% parry

Net change: -1.401% dodge, +0.435 parry = -0.966% avoidance

Paladin:
3.1
19.504 + 5+5 = 29.504% dodge
11.218 +5+5 = 21.218% parry

3.2
17.955 + 5 +5= 27.955% dodge
11.658+5+5= 21.658% parry

Net change: -1.549% doge, +0.44 parry = -1.109% avoidance

Alright, I don't have a spreadsheet for this (yet!), so I'm doing it all in Notepad. I'm pretty much just using Satrina's post on Tankspot here:
http://www.tankspot.com/forums/f63/40003-diminishing-returns-avoidance.html

Many thanks to him for putting that together.

Simple template I'm using, simply replacing everything relevant and doing it twice to change the conversions. This one is dodge:

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Q u o t e:

Suppose a warrior has 5% dodge when naked with +261 agility from gear, +557 defense on gear, and +368 dodge rating on gear:

First, calculate the base dodge chance from gear:
1a) Convert defense rating to defense skill: 557/4.9185 = 113.24591 defense skill
1b) Convert defense skill to base dodge chance: 113.24591 * 0.04 = 4.52984%
1c) Convert dodge rating to base dodge chance: 368/39.34799 = 9.35245%
1d) Convert agility to base dodge chance: 261 * 0.01360 = 3.5496%

We calculate A as the sum of dodge from 1b, 1c, and 1d: A = (4.52984 + 9.35245 + 3.5496)

2) Calculate k/A: 0.956/(4.52984 + 9.35245 + 3.5496) = 0.05484
3) Calculate 1/c + k/A: 0.01135 + 0.05484 = 0.06619
4) The result from step 3 is 1/Ad, so now invert it: 1/0.06619 = 15.10824%. This is Ad, the diminished amount of dodge actually gained

Now add the diminished dodge from gear to the dodge when naked, and the warrior will end up with 5% + 15.11% = 20.11% dodge

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It's not too hard, but it's tedious.

The avoidance changes are deeply troubling.

While it may be accidental, it almost looks like Blizzard is moving in a direction where bears will have higher effective health, but lower avoidance. This is like saying a hummer is balanced against a yugo due to gas mileage - and then putting them in a demolition derby.

The tank with the best effective health is the best tank. Even pointing to cooldowns doesn't change this fact because cooldowns are only good because they change effective health.

Healers have to spam to keep you alive on hard fights regardless of your RNG luck. More avoidance just means more overheal.

Ok, I'm back from work and I'm starting on a spreadsheet.

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Q u o t e:

3.2
Dodge = 5.89% + 10% + 32.43% = 48.41%

Net change: -1.86% avoidance.

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That seems low. Comparing character sheet numbers on Live and PTR, I'm losing more than that, and that's with inferior gear and no raid buffs.

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Q u o t e:
That seems low. Comparing character sheet numbers on Live and PTR, I'm losing more than that, and that's with inferior gear and no raid buffs.

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DR could be doing something wierd to the numbers.

Remember 2% avoidance difference is worth more when you're up arounf 48% dodge, than when you're sitting on 42% or so.

Has anyone confirmed yet that the caps and constants for the classes have not been changed as well?

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Q u o t e:
Has anyone confirmed yet that the caps and constants for the classes have not been changed as well?

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Best bet is to ask Whitetooth.

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Q u o t e:
Has anyone confirmed yet that the caps and constants for the classes have not been changed as well?

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"Parry still diminishes more quickly than dodge." would seem to imply that the caps have not changed

Off-topic: Congrats on the Impeding Scarab

BAM, it's up. Had to fix base values for Druids, but it should all be good now.

It's kinda dumb how druids are affected a lot more than the other tanks.

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Q u o t e:
BAM, it's up. Had to fix base values for Druids, but it should all be good now.

It's kinda dumb how druids are affected a lot more than the other tanks.

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Yea, I can't believe they wouldn't know that reducing dodge in this manner would hurt druids most, and that they wouldn't know that tank avoidance is currently near identical.

I hope, as others have said, they aren't going the model of making druids high health, high mitigation, low avoidance mana sponges. (although the net avoidance change really isn't all that significant, or at least, the net change relative to other tanks isn't)

Because that model is basically the best possible one out of all choices.

The problem is... these aren't significant numbers. If they were going to model druids as high armor/health tanks, they'd need to go ahead and nerf their dodge by a larger amount.

If they're aiming at reducing tank avoidance across the board... this isn't it. No one is going to notice a 1% avoidance loss, and it's not going to suddenly let bosses hit like fluffy kittens again.

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Q u o t e:
The problem is... these aren't significant numbers. If they were going to model druids as high armor/health tanks, they'd need to go ahead and nerf their dodge by a larger amount.

If they're aiming at reducing tank avoidance across the board... this isn't it. No one is going to notice a 1% avoidance loss, and it's not going to suddenly let bosses hit like fluffy kittens again.

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Fluffy kittens hit pretty hard. They can kill level 1 commoners, you know.

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Q u o t e:
The tank with the best effective health is the best tank. Even pointing to cooldowns doesn't change this fact because cooldowns are only good because they change effective health.

Healers have to spam to keep you alive on hard fights regardless of your RNG luck. More avoidance just means more overheal.

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Unless they change the encounters too. They could design fights where overall damage taken matters, or where healer mana matters, etc. Whether or not they're doing that for 3.2, I can't say.

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Q u o t e:
The problem is... these aren't significant numbers. If they were going to model druids as high armor/health tanks, they'd need to go ahead and nerf their dodge by a larger amount.

If they're aiming at reducing tank avoidance across the board... this isn't it. No one is going to notice a 1% avoidance loss, and it's not going to suddenly let bosses hit like fluffy kittens again.

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Almost every single change on the PTR seems to be small steps that don't really change much. Encounters seem very easy too.

I'm guessing they are just trying proofs of concept, as it were, and will probably scale up some of these changes.

I'd say they should increase base avoidance a tad (or increase talented avoidance), and then really hit avoidance from gear. But by just making it expensive, not with diminishing returns.

Of course, healer mana and boss damage output would still need to be altered so that you don't remain with spam healing, except tanks have less avoidance. If healer mana is meaningful, the massive damage reduction that avoidance offers will be meaningful, even without terribly large avoidance numbers.

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Q u o t e:

Fluffy kittens hit pretty hard. They can kill level 1 commoners, you know.

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Hogger dual weilds Fluffy Kittens, true story

seriously?

before miss we are 3.44% below paladins and 2.56% below warriors. Our miss should be equal.

so barely higher armor
lower hp frost/unholy tanks or slightly higher hp (blood)
less avoidance
similar threat


again why even bring a compentent dk tank, since they will be taking more hits for more dmg all the time with equal or less EH then every other tank.

please tell me i am reading this wrong.